Calculation of epidemic thresholds for incidence of community-acquired pneumonia
A. D. Botvinkin,
N. A. Kravchenko,
T. A. Bayanova,
M. I. Khakimova,
T. A. Gavrilova,
N. A. Likhanova https://doi.org/10.23946/2500-0764-2022-7-2-45-55
Abstract
Aim. To calculate epidemic incidence thresholds for community-acquired pneumonia in the Irkutsk Region and to identify irregularities in the annual incidence trends.
Materials and Methods. We carried out a cross-sectional epidemiological study evaluating the relevant data from the Irkutsk Region during 2013-2020. To calculate the epidemic thresholds, we used weekly information for 2013-2018 about newly diagnosed cases of community-acquired pneumonia. Similar data for 2019 and 2020 were used for retrospective comparison with the calculated thresholds.
Results. Computation of the community-acquired pneumonia epidemic incidence thresholds is based on the weekly and 4-week calculation of the median and quartiles (Q1 ; Q3 ), which is conducted differentially for the total population, children (≤ 17 years of age), working adults (18-64 years of age) and pensioners (≥ 65 years of age) per 100,000 population. When compared with the upper epidemic threshold (Q3 ), seasonal changes in the incidence of community-acquired pneumonia have been revealed in 2019 and 2020; they were associated with the spread of infuenza, COVID-19, and an epidemic of unknown origin which was observed mostly among children.
Conclusion. Calculation of epidemic thresholds for the incidence of community-acquired pneumonia can be used in epidemiological surveillance.
About the Authors
A. D. Botvinkin
Irkutsk State Medical University
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Dr. Alexander D. Botvinkin, MD, DSc, Head of Department of Epidemiology
1, Krasny Vosstaniya Street, Irkutsk, 664003
N. A. Kravchenko
Irkutsk State Medical University
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Dr. Natalia А. Kravchenko, MD, Assistant Professor, Department of Epidemiology
1, Krasny Vosstaniya Street, Irkutsk, 664003
T. A. Bayanova
Irkutsk State Medical University
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Dr. Tatiana A. Bayanova, MD, PhD, Associate Professor, Department of Epidemiology
1, Krasny Vosstaniya Street, Irkutsk, 664003
M. I. Khakimova
Center for Hygiene and Epidemiology in the Irkutsk Region
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Dr. Maryana I. Khakimova, MD, Head of the Department of Epidemiology
51, Trilissera Street, Irkutsk, 664047
T. A. Gavrilova
Ministry of Healthcare of the Irkutsk Region
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Dr. Tatiana A. Gavrilova, MD, Deputy Head of the Department of Epidemiology
29, Karl Marx Street, Irkutsk, 664003
N. A. Likhanova
Department of Russian Federal Service for Surveillance on Consumer Rights Protection and Human Wellbeing in the Irkutsk Region
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Dr. Nadezhda A. Likhanova, MD, Head of the Department of Epidemiological Surveillance
4, Karl Marx Street, Irkutsk, 664003
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Review
For citations:
Botvinkin A.D., Kravchenko N.A., Bayanova T.A., Khakimova M.I., Gavrilova T.A., Likhanova N.A. Calculation of epidemic thresholds for incidence of community-acquired pneumonia. Fundamental and Clinical Medicine. 2022;7(2):45-55. (In Russ.) https://doi.org/10.23946/2500-0764-2022-7-2-45-55
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