Trends in HIV infection incidence in Tyumen Region from 1993 to 2019

Aim. To evaluate the epidemiological trends in HIV infection in the Tyumen Region between 1993 and 2019.

Materials and Methods. We studied incidence and prevalence of HIV infection in the Tyumen Region and assessed the pathways of HIV transmission on ascending stages of the epidemic process using the Cramer’s V, a measure of an association between two nominal variables. Gender involvement into the epidemic process was assessed using the McNemar’s test for paired nominal data whilst age involvement was evaluated by means of Pearson’s chi-squared test. The statistical results of calculating the linear correlation were considered signifcant at p<0.05.

Results. We subdivided the entire period of HIV epidemic (1993−2019) into the fve time frames. During the frst interval (from 1993 to 1997), a moderate increase in HIV infection was recorded. The second interval (from 1998 to 2000) was notable for a remarkable increase in the incidence of HIV infection, while this increment was reduced from 2001 to 2005. Yet, the incidence of HIV infection showed a steady increase from 2006 to 2016, although being lower in 2017 to 2019. The average incidence of HIV infection from 1993 to 2019 was 67.35 ± 7.6 per 100,000 population. The proportion of women among the HIV infection cases increased from 25.0% in 1993-1997 to 40.5% in 2017-2019. Since 2004, there has been a decrease in the HIV infection incidence in the age group ≤ 29 years of age, with a concurrent increase in older age groups. Since 2014, the majority of new HIV infection cases are registered between 30 and 34 years of age. Currently, there is a clear trend to rise of HIV infection incidence in older age groups (21.8% between 30 and 34 years of age, 21.9% between 35 and 39 years of age, and 16.4% between 40 and 44 years of age).

Conclusions. Despite the lowering incidence of HIV infection in the Tyumen Region from 2017 to 2019, it still remains high. HIV infection is increasingly frequent in women and between 30 and 39 years of age.

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